Medizinische Universität Graz Austria/Österreich - Forschungsportal - Medical University of Graz
Gewählte Publikation:
Reibnegger, G; Spira, TJ; Fuchs, D; Werner-Felmayer, G; Dierich, MP; Wachter, H.
Individual probability for onset of full-blown disease in patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1.
Clin Chem. 1991; 37(3):351-355
Doi: 10.1093/clinchem/37.3.351
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- Führende Autor*innen der Med Uni Graz
- Reibnegger Gilbert
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- Abstract:
- Increased concentrations of neopterin, a marker for cell-mediated immune activation, and decreased numbers of CD4+ T cells, are predictors for progression of disease after infection with human immunodeficiency virus type 1. Previous studies have demonstrated different rates of onset of full-blown acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) for groups of patients, defined by laboratory marker values, who were initially symptom-free. By re-analysis of one such study, we demonstrate how for an individual patient, the individual marker values, together with a prior risk estimate, can be converted into current or accumulated post-test probability of onset of AIDS at a certain time. We used a statistical technique suggested by Albert et al. (Clin Chem 1984;30:69-76), which allows incorporation of fixed and time-dependent covariates. Besides allowing individual projections, the method shows that the predictive abilities of CD4+ T cell numbers and of neopterin concentrations do not vary greatly with regard to time of observation; both laboratory markers independently modulate the underlying prior probability of AIDS onset, which is significantly increased with the passage of time.
- Find related publications in this database (using NLM MeSH Indexing)
- Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome - immunology
- Antigens, CD4 - immunology
- Biopterin - analogs and derivatives
- HIV Seropositivity - immunology
- Homosexuality - immunology
- Humans - immunology
- Male - immunology
- Models, Biological - immunology
- Neopterin - immunology
- Predictive Value of Tests - immunology
- Probability - immunology
- Regression Analysis - immunology
- Risk Factors - immunology
- T-Lymphocytes - immunology
- Time Factors - immunology
- Find related publications in this database (Keywords)
- ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROME
- NEOPTERIN
- T-CELLS
- POSTTEST PROBABILITIES AND RISK ESTIMATES
- STATISTICS