Medizinische Universität Graz - Research portal
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SHR Neuro Cancer Cardio Lipid Metab Microb
Willem, L; Abrams, S; Libin, PJK; Coletti, P; Kuylen, E; Petrof, O; Møgelmose, S; Wambua, J; Herzog, SA; Faes, C; Beutels, P; Hens, N.
The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19.
Nat Commun. 2021; 12(1): 1524
Doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7
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- Herzog Sereina Annik
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- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., "household bubbles". The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.
- Find related publications in this database (using NLM MeSH Indexing)
- Adolescent - administration & dosage
- Adult - administration & dosage
- Aged - administration & dosage
- Aged, 80 and over - administration & dosage
- Belgium - epidemiology
- COVID-19 - epidemiology, transmission
- Child - administration & dosage
- Child, Preschool - administration & dosage
- Communicable Disease Control - methods
- Contact Tracing - administration & dosage
- Disease Transmission, Infectious - prevention & control
- Family Characteristics - administration & dosage
- Health Policy - administration & dosage
- Hospitalization - administration & dosage
- Humans - administration & dosage
- Infant - administration & dosage
- Infant, Newborn - administration & dosage
- Middle Aged - administration & dosage
- Models, Theoretical - administration & dosage
- Pandemics - administration & dosage
- Quarantine - administration & dosage
- SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification
- Schools - administration & dosage
- Young Adult - administration & dosage