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Kaltenborn, A; Matzke, S; Kleine, M; Krech, T; Ramackers, W; Vondran, FW; Klempnauer, J; Bektas, H; Schrem, H.
Prediction of survival and tumor recurrence in patients undergoing surgery for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms.
J Surg Oncol. 2016; 113(2): 194-202.
Doi: 10.1002/jso.24116
Web of Science
PubMed
FullText
FullText_MUG
- Co-authors Med Uni Graz
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Schrem Harald Heinrich
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- Abstract:
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This study strives to define prognostic models for outcome after surgery for malignant pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors.
Forty-one patients were included. Prognostic models for mortality and disease recurrence were developed with multivariate binary logistic regression.
The proposed prognostic model for tumor recurrence risk after surgery in percentage (AUROC = 0.774, 95%CI = 0.611-0.937) is: Risk in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -4.360 + (0.015 × tumor diameter in cm) + (0.010 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (1.077 × distant metastases, if yes = 1; if no = 0) + (-0.026 × Ki-67-positive cells in %) + (-1.086 × upper abdominal pain, if yes = 1; if no = 0). The proposed prognostic model for observed 3-year survival probability after surgery in % (AUROC = 0.932, 95%CI = 0.857-0.999) is: Survival probability in % = Exp(Y)/(1 + Exp(Y)), with Y = -12.492 + (0.054 × preoperative platelet count in thousand/μl) + (0.112 × minimal distance of the resection margin from the tumor in mm) + (-1.574 × number of positive lymph nodes) + (2.292 × histological tumor infiltration, if yes = 1; if no = 0) CONCLUSIONS: The platelet count was identified as a relevant risk factor. Proposed prognostic models with good model-fit display properties that indicate potential clinical usefulness.
© 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Adult -
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Aged -
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Area Under Curve -
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Female -
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Humans -
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Kaplan-Meier Estimate -
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Ki-67 Antigen - blood
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Male -
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Middle Aged -
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Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - blood
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Neoplasm Recurrence, Local - diagnosis
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Neuroendocrine Tumors - blood
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Neuroendocrine Tumors - pathology
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Neuroendocrine Tumors - surgery
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Pancreatic Neoplasms - blood
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Pancreatic Neoplasms - pathology
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Pancreatic Neoplasms - surgery
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Platelet Count -
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Predictive Value of Tests -
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Prognosis -
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ROC Curve -
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Reproducibility of Results -
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Retrospective Studies -
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Risk Assessment -
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Risk Factors -
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Treatment Outcome -
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thrombocytes
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metastasis
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prognosis
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multivariate analysis
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pancreas
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neuroendocrine tumors